A Spot for Nava: What Did He Ever Do to John Farrell?

A few weeks ago, at the Dunkin’ Donuts on Brighton Ave in Allston, I ordered a Large Iced Pumpkin coffee with skim milk. After waiting more than five minute, despite being the sole customer in the store, I received a Medium Iced Regular coffee with no milk. To be fair, they were close, in that I received a liquid beverage. It was just every other detail that was slightly off. But did I complain or insist they correct the order? Of course not, because I am timid and I hate making waves much more than I hate iced regular coffee with no milk. In fact, without giving it much thought, I proceeded to place $1 in the tip cup, despite being extremely dissatisfied with the service. That $1 was gone, never to return.

True, it was not the single greatest waste of $1 of my life. On Thanksgiving Eve 2010, I ate sloppily devoured a McDonald’s cheeseburger at 3am in a Milford parking lot. Six hours later, I awoke with strep throat. Now, that could have been due to the lack of sleep, excessive alcohol consumption, and the beginning cold & flu season, but I attribute the week of strep to that Dollar Menu cheeseburger. That was a poorly spent $1.

By the way, if you’re counting, that’s 200 words about my thoughtless $1 spending habits. And if you have made it this far (Hi, Nicole!), you are most likely wondering why I would subject you to these 50 words explaining those initial 200 words.

Well, it's because for the amount I tipped for coffee I did not order, and I paid for beef-like substance that caused sickness, the Red Sox bought Daniel Nava. I am sure you all know the story, but if not, here is the briefest of recaps: In 2008, the Sox purchased Nava’s contract from the Golden League’s Chico (CA) Outlaws for $1. In 2013, he was among the most productive hitters in the American League. The Red Sox will likely never regret that $1, even if Nava gives the team strep throat.

To be clear, I am not writing this from a place of angry, righteous indignation (over something that has not yet occurred, which is my usual M.O.), but rather from a place of hope. After Nava lost his starting job and was relegated to an afterthought for much of the postseason, I sincerely hope there is a consistent place for him in the Sox lineup. At this moment, at the very least, it seems a certainty he will be on the roster next season. He is flexible, capable of playing both corner outfield spots, first base, and is a strong enough hitter to DH. He is not arbitration eligible until 2015, and he will not become a free agent until 2018. He will turn 31 during Spring Training, meaning he is under team control at the age when most position players are reaching their offensive peak.

But in this modern sports media environment, where playoff performances have come to define a player to a much greater degree than the larger sample size of the regular season (see: Drew,Stephen; James, Lebron), it is easy to forget just how outstanding and valuable Nava was in 2013:

134 games, .303/.385/.445, 29 2B, 12 HR, 66 RBI, 77 RS, 15 HBP (2^nd in the AL), 128 OPS+

It is when we delve deeper into the 2013 numbers, however, that we see just good Nava has become, and why he should remain a vital member of the Sox offense in 2014. Last season, he ranked among the best hitters against right-handed pitching in the American League:

• .385 OBP – 5th in the AL
• .411 OBP vs, Right-Handed Pitching – 5th in the AL
• .322 Batting Average vs. Right-Handed Pitching – 6th in AL
• .894 OPS vs. Right-Handed Pitching – 9th in AL

The names ahead of Nava in these categories: Ortiz, Cabrera, Trout, Cano, and Chris Davis. When he faces right-handed pitching, he keeps very good, Hall-of-Fame level company.

Cano is set to make $25-30 million a season. Nava made $505,500 in 2013, and he is scheduled to make $500,000 in 2014. And 2014 looks nearly as promising as this past season.

"I 'll take off my jersey whenever I want, motherfucker. I don't care if it's only the fourth inning. Babes came to see the gun show, Farrell"

People much, much smarter, thinner, and better-looking than me do not believe 2013 was a fluke season. Below are Nava’s 2014 projections, according to the Bill James Handbook:

121 games, .285/.377/.435, 28 2B, 11 HR, 59 RBI, 66 RS

Those projected numbers are valuable to a team who could lose a top five first-baseman (Napoli) and lost their starting centerfielder (Ellsbury). If Napoli leaves, heavy playing time for Nava is a superior option to a strict Middlebrooks/Carp platoon. With Ellsbury gone, Jackie Bradley, Jr. is the probable everyday centerfielder. If he struggles again, however, Nava’s flexibility allows him to play right field, with Victorino moving to center. Even if Bradley, Jr. is ready to be the centerfielder for the next decade, Victorino played in 122 games last season, and with him reaching his mid-30’s and his aggressive style that leads to injuries, Nava could still be needed in right field for extended stretches.

Nava’s value – in terms of offense, defensive flexibility, and team friendly contract status – is obvious. As mentioned above, though, this post stems from Nava’s demotion in the playoffs in favor of Jonny Gomes. The public consensus seemed to be that Gomes was better suited for the postseason; you know, “more clutch” and other assorted bullshit sports talk radio phrases. And while I love Gomes and what he brings to the Sox, the numbers just do not support him being
demonstrably better than Nava.

Nava’s 2013 Postseason: .200/.286/.240, 1 2B, 2 RBI

Gomes’s 2013 Postseason: .167/.255/.286, 2 2B, I HR, 5 RBI

So, while neither was lighting the world on fire at the plate, one of the best left-handed hitters in the game in 2013 rode the bench against right-handed aces like Verlander, Scherzer, Wainwright, and Wacha. It was an odd development that went largely unexplained by John Farrell or Ben Cherrington.

However, when the final result is winning the World Series, it is tough to argue with the process. Gomes’s energy was infectious, and his three-run home run in Game 4 of the World Series may have well been the biggest hit of that series. I just hope the final weeks of 2013 do not bleed into 2014. Nava is far too good for that.

So, here’s to Nava’s quietly superb 2013 and similarly promising 2014. To celebrate, a round of medium iced regular coffee’s with no milk, on me. You can take care of the tip.

"If I keep producing big hits like this, there's no way they can put me on the bench in October, right?"