Monday, March 31, 2014

Finally, The 2014 Season: Dr. StrangeLackey, Or How I Learned To Relax And Love The RHP With the Greatest Voice Ever


You may forgotten about Lackey's dulcet tones…


In 2013, the man with the golden throat was tough, resilient, and one of the damn best pitchers in the American League. It was a joy to watch him silence many of his harshest critics. He was outstanding in the regular season, and even better in the playoffs. So, why aren't more people excited about Lackey heading in to 2014?

Because for all that he did in 2013, what Lackey was not, throughout much of the season, was lucky.

Of the 36 pitchers who threw at least 180 innings in 2013, Lackey finished number 30 in run support, with  3.76 runs per game. In his his 29 regular season starts, the Sox were shut out on five occasions, including an embarassing 2-0 loss to the 111-loss Astros on August 5.

As a result, Lackey posted just a 10-13 record, despite his 3.52 ERA. We are moving ever closer to "Killing the Win," to quote Brian Kenny, but W's next to a pitcher's name still get attention (see: Schilling and Mussina Hall-of-Fame vote totals). Ryan Dempster, Lackey's teammate, posted an ERA more than a full run higher (4.57) than Lackey's, but still managed to win eight games with the help of the best run support in baseball (6.07 runs per game).
Despite the hard-luck run support, 2013 was Lackey’s best season since 2007, the year he won 19 games, led the league with a 3.01 ERA, posted the sixth highest WAR in the AL, and finished third in Cy Young voting.

Last season, Lackey’s 4.025 K/BB rate was good for the seventh in the league, while his career-best 1.152 WHIP was tenth best in the AL. His .244 Opponents Average was the lowest of his career, as was the .381 Opponents Slugging Percentage. The 161 K’s were Lackey’s most since 2007, and the 189.1 Innings Pitched were the second highest since 2007.

Man, wouldn't you love to hear the noise emanating from that laugh
During the postseason, he was 3-1 with a 2.77 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 25 K’s in 26 innings. Lackey out-dueled Justin Verlander with 6.2 innings of four hit, eight strikeout ball in Game 3 of the ALCS and posted a 2.57 ERA in three World Series appearances. His one inning scoreless relief appearance Game 4 helped even the series at 2-2 before he picked up the win in the decisive Game 6. In that game, Lackey allowed one earned run in a tough 6.2 innings, and he really wanted that last out of the seventh inning.

With two outs, runners on the corners, and Lackey's pitch count at 98, John Farrell came to the mound to remove Lackey. What transpired over the next 40 seconds - Lackey telling Farell "this is my guy," Farell leaving him in to face Matt Holliday, and 38,000 fans chanting "Lackey, Lackey" - seemed damn near impossible to imagine happening at any point from 2010-2012.



In fact, throughout 2013, Lackey never acknowledged the Fenway fans as he walked off the mound. Not a tip of the cap, or even a wave of his right hand. Personally, I do not think he's ever been crazy about Fenway or Sox fans. Three seasons of unrelenting boos and criticism, much of it unwarranted, will do that to a man. Hell, as a member of the Angels teams eliminated by the Sox in 2004, 2007, and 2008, Lackey once advocated for Fenway to be "blown up."

But on the night of Game 6, he finally tipped his cap in appreciation. It was a cool moment, and probably as much warmth as we'll ever get from Lackey. But honestly, though, who cares if Lackey loves the fans? I would rather have a pitcher who is honest about pitching for himself and the 24 other guys in the clubhouse, than hear the tired cliche or "doing it for the fans."

With that, we move on to 2014. As far as 2013, I say good for Lackey. Mahna Mahna.


 



Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Finally, The 2014 Season: Henry Owens, The Lanky Little League Bully


Henry Owens throws 94 and has eyes that will haunt your nightmares

When I was a scrappy, glove-first, extremely overweight 10 year old making my way up the ranks of the Hopedale Youth Baseball Senior League, there was an extremely tall, extremely lanky 12 year old pitcher who was terrifying to bat against. How tall was he? Honestly, by conservative estimates, he was probably 8’3’’. He did not throw hard, but the ball would be released about two feet--again, conservative estimate-- from the batter’s box. Adding to the horrifying spectacle was the recycled white uniform pants from the 1980's, which already started above his ankles and rode up to his knee in his kick. Coaches and parents claim he was 12, but he was obviously in his mid-20's. 
Whenever my team, Hopedale Country Club, faced him I hid myself in the back corner of the batter's box. I got in my three swings and was relieved I was not killed in the process. Though we never spoke on the field or , I could only assume his lankiness and heightness made him a bully. 
While Hopedale Youth Baseball's Senior League is without question the height of baseball competition in the 01747 zip code, I am excited about the possibility of seeing a lanky bully perform on the slightly larger stage of Fenway Park. In 2014, this should come in the person of Sox super-prospect Henry Owens, who is 6’6’’ and only 205 lbs. That is pretty damn lank. 
Owens turns 22 in late July, and there is a good chance the left-hander will be in the Sox bullpen by his birthday. At the very least, the native of Huntington Beach, CA projects to be part of the Sox rotation by the time he turns 23 in 2015. They are simply the next steps in what has been a rapid and exciting ascension through the Sox's system.
In 2013, Owens, the Sox’s first round pick in 2011, dominated the minor leagues. In a season split between the Salem Red Sox of the High A Carolina League and the Double A Portland Sea Dogs, Owens compiled some remarkable overall numbers:
11-6, 2.67 ERA, 135 IP, 169 K’s, 11.3 SO/9, 1.126 WHIP
It was when he made that jump to Double A in early August, though, that he really got people excited for 2014. During the season's final month in Portland, Owens posted the following numbers: 
3-1, 1.78 ERA, 30.1 IP, 46 K’s, 13.6 SO/9, 1.088 WHIP

You really want to see this coming at you from eight inches above you, Brett Gardner?

Heading into 2014, Baseball Prospectus ranks Owens as the fifth best prospect in the Sox system and the 69th best overall in baseball. With a fastball that regularly hits 94, Baseball Prospectus project him as a number three starter for the next decade, and compare him strongly and favorably to Angels starter C.J. Wilson.  
Now, I understand that "the next C.J. Wilson” does not jump off the page, but it's a comparison that should excite Sox fans.  While Wilson was not a starter until his age 28 season, in his four seasons since moving from the bullpen he has posted a 3.37 ERA and a 122 ERA+, while averaging 34 starts, 15 wins, 210 innings pitched, and 184 strikeouts. Even if those numbers are Owens’s ceiling, he will slot well in to the Sox rotation for 2015 and several seasons beyond.
Besides, I have no Henry’s in my life. Hell, with Breaking Bad over and Rookie of the Year showings becoming increasingly sporadic on cable, I don’t even have a Hank in my life. And shouldn’t we all have a Henry or Hank in our lives? You could be the one, Owens, so don’t be a bust, you big, lanky bully. 


Yeah, we can laugh now, Owens, but guys like you made the spring of 1995 miserable for this chunky first baseman. 

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

In Brief: Holy Crap, Wade Boggs Was Amazing


As the title suggests, I’ll keep this mercifully brief…
Joe Posnanski, America's Greatest Living Baseball Writer, has been exhaustively and in great detail counting down his Top 100 players of all time. Last month, he unveiled longtime Red Sox third baseman Wade Boggs as #52 on his list. And I was surprised, honestly, to see him so high on the list. After reading his article and doing my own research, however, I realized my shock is due solely to my own ignorance of his career.
"Another double down the line. A few more of these and I might get as many MVP votes as Tony Fernandez."
 
When it came to Boggs, I really only knew the surface stuff. I knew he reached 3,000 Hits (3,010 to be exact). I knew he went to the Yankees to get his World Series ring. I knew he deserved an Emmy for his work on Cheers. But I had never really given his career numbers more than a cursory glance.
 
However, when you star delving into Boggs's career, you find just how absurdly great he was. He finished with 578 Doubles, good for 20th all time. His .415 OBP ranks 24th, and only Barry Bonds has a higher career OBP for players who played at least five seasons in the 1980’s. Boggs’s 1,412 Walks places him 26th all time, right between Frank Robinson and Hank Aaron. And finally, his .328 career average is 33rd best all time, with only Tony Gwynn compiling a better career average for players who played at least five seasons in the 1980’s.
The career totals are extraordinary, but when you look season-by-season, it’s clear Boggs might have been baseball’s best hitter in the 1980’s. Seriously, look at the average season during his seven year peak, 1983-1989:

Wade Boggs Batting Stats for Years 1983 to 1989

Year
Tm
G
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
CS
BB
SO
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS
OPS+
TB
GDP
HBP
SH
SF
IBB
1983-1989
BOS
1079
4990
4196
772
1479
300
35
59
479
13
22
719
318
.352

.446

.483

.928

152
2026
114
17
19
39
83
Average
154
713
599
110
211
43
5
8
68
2
3
103
45
289
16
2
3
6
12
per 162 games
162
749
630
116
222
46
6
9
72
2
4
108
48
304
18
3
3
6
13

Look at this numbers, again. And that, including the .352 batting average, was his average season for nearly a decade! Good god. Shame on me for not fully realizing just how great Boggs was. And as Posnanski notes, because Boggs was not a traditional power-hitting third baseman as a prospect, the Sox buried him in the minors for about 1.5 seasons longer than necessary. His first full season did not come until age 25, and it probably cost him 200-300 career hits.
During a nine season run from 1983-1991, Boggs achieved the following:
·         5x – Batting Champion
·         6x – Led league in OBP
·         2x – Led league in Doubles
·         2x – Led league in Runs Scored
·         2x – Led league in Walks
·       2x – Led league in Plate Appearances
·         6x – Finished Top 3 in WAR (3x led all position players)
And the accomplishment that most blows my mind…
·         2x – Led league in OPS, including a 1.049 in 1987
For a guy who hit 118 career home runs, with a career high of 24 in 1987, to twice lead the league in OPS is remarkable. That he posted a .928 OPS over a decade while reaching double digits in home runs only once (24 in 1987) is hard to believe.
But as Posnanski notes, Boggs was really a player ahead of his time. His greatest strengths – drawing walks, 40+ doubles a season, generally not making outs – would today make him, if not a God, then at least some sort of left-handed hitting deity. 30 years ago, it got him labeled derisively as a "singles hitter" who was too slow to hit leadoff (24 career stolen bases) and selfish for not trying to hit more home runs.
In fact, during that 1983-1989 stretch, Boggs never finished higher than fourth in the AL MVP voting. In 1987 he hit .363 to win the batting title, led the league in Times on Base, OBP, OPS, OPS+, WAR for Offensive Player, finished second in Doubles, third in Walks, third in SLP, fourth in Hits, fourth in Extra Base Hits, and fifth in Total Bases. He added a career high 24 Home Runs and 89 RBI. He finished ninth in the MVP voting. NINTH! Toronto’s Tony Fernandez, he of the five HR’s and .805 OPS, finished eighth.
To recap: The 1980's, especially the sportswriters, were just the worst. However, the awful uniforms of the decade were amazing. And, of course, I’m an idiot for not realizing how truly great Boggs was. God bless you, Chicken Man.
 
 A tip of the cap to you as well, sir

P.S.
Time was kind to Boggs, as he received the 22nd highest (91.9%) voting percentage for a player appearing on the ballot for the first time.