Improving Mediocrity: Five Reasons to Find Hope in Rick Porcello

NOTE:

This article will be discussing Porcello on his merits alone, with nary a mention of Jon Lester. As most of you know, by virtue of the two trades, the Sox essentially traded Porcello for Lester. However, we will not be comparing Porcello, whose production since his rookie year in 2009 (98 ERA+, 4.30 ERA, 5.5 SO/9, 10.6 WAR) pales considerably to Lester (120 ERA+, 3.52 ERA, 8.7 SO/9. 24.1 WAR) during that same stretch. But we will not be mentioning Lester, got it? Not a single mention of the man with a career postseason 2.57 ERA and 1.071 WHIP. Sigh.

This is Rick Porcello. I don't know enough about him yet to  add a sarcastic remark.

By almost every quantifiable measure, 2014 was the best season of Rick Porcello’s career. In his sixth full season, he posted career-bests in WAR (4.0), WHIP (1.231), Wins (15), Innings Pitched (204.2), Complete Games (3), Shutouts (3), ERA (3.43), ERA+ (116), H/9 (9.3) and BB/9  (1.803). Entering his age-26 season, he already has 76 career wins and appears to be trending positively across the board.

Porcello has the talent, as evidenced by being the Tigers first-round pick in 2007. Despite the pedigree and career-best season, however, there has been one escapable fact: Porcello has been a slightly below average major league pitcher, with a career 98 ERA+ (100 is considered league average). In fact, last season was the first time since his rookie year of 2009 that he posted an ERA+ of better than 100. It was also the first time since 2009 that his ERA finished under 4.32.

In his career, he has given up more than 200 hits in three seasons, including a league-worst 226 in 2012. He has done so without striking out many hitters. In six seasons, Porcello has never struck out more than 142 batters season in a season. That combination - a ton of hits without many swings and misses - usually yields bad results.

But alas, it is not all doom and gloom and WHIP’s above 1.300.  There is hope. Kinda. Below are five reasons to be optimistic in 2015 about Rick “The Rick” Porcello:

1. He is durable. Porcello has started at least 31 games in five of six seasons, and started 27 games in 2010. He has never logged fewer than 170.2 innings in a season, with his career-high of 204.2 coming in 2014. On a staff fronted by perennial non-perennial starter Clay Buholtz, an average pitcher taking the ball every fifth day is to be celebrated (albeit quietly with a few, sad cheap beers).

2. He issues few walks. Traditionally, he’s been stingy with the base on balls, allowing just 2.2 per nine innings for his career and a 1.803 last season, eighth best in the league. Porcello has finished in the top-10 among AL pitchers in BB/9 three times since 2010, and he is currently eighth among all active pitchers. If Juan Nieves and John Farrell can continue to reduce the number of hits given up by Porcello, he could be a solid Number 2 starter on a playoff team.

3. His numbers have been trending in the right direction for multiple seasons. For the third consecutive season, his numbers of innings pitched increased as his WHIP and Hits/9 innings decreased. For the fifth straight season, his ERA decreased and ERA+ increased. In addition to his career-best 2014 numbers listed above, his SO/9 (5.7) and SO/BB (3.15) represented the second best marks of his career.

4. He is still young. Porcello will turn 26 the day after Christmas, and there is some veeerrryyy encouraging historical comparisons . Baseball-Reference lists uber Hall-of-Famer Greg Maddux as his number two career comp through age 25. Like Porcello, Maddux made his debut at 20, and spent a half-decade as an inconsistent young pitcher who issued few walks, but did not strike out many hitters and was always near the bottom of the league in hits surrendered. But, much like Porcello, his numbers began trending in the right direction from about his age-23 season forward. Finally, at age 26 in 1992,, Maddux broke through, winning 20 games, leading the league in games started, innings pitched, and ERA+, and earning the first of his four consecutive NL Cy Young Awards. Porcello might not be the next Maddux, but the numbers are remarkably similar. How does Poor Man’s Steve Avery hit your ear? Pretty sweetly, I know.

5. He will be a free agent after 2015. This is verging on baseless “Hot Takes” territory, but Porcello has every incentive to be great this upcoming season. With the Sox improved offensive, winning 15-18 games is a distinct possibility. And Porcello and his agent must know the insane offers that will await a  27 year old on the heels of an 18 win season. If he gets 6 years/$110 million from the Yankees next winter, it will be because he delivered big time for the Sox in the Summer of 2015.

Porcello is a young, dependable starting pitcher with steadily improving numbers in a contract year pitching in front of what could be a top-tier offense. It is a gamble, but it is a worthwhile risk, in my opinion. And I feel this way even if he is never as great as He Who Will Not Be Named in This Article (It's Jon Lester. Jon Lester is the guy who will not be named. Jon Lester).

P.S.

Jon Lester