The Case for Salty

First off, the “Case for Salty” is a pretty decent title for a 1940’s detective novel. Interested authors should contact my non-existent attorney to negotiate rights for its usage.

 

Secondly, Saltalamacchia is too long to type dozens of times throughout the post. Instead, I will be referring to him as Salty. As much as I deplore referring to a grown man I have never met by his nickname, I find it preferable to referring to him by his first name. For whatever reasons, that feels much creepier. So, Salty it is. Now, let’s get down to the business of nerding-out, free-agent style.

Intro: In their bizarre rush to push Salty out of town, the Felger’s of the media, as they so often do, are ignoring the huge sample size of the regular season and choosing to focus solely on the small postseason sample size. More precisely, they are focusing on the even smaller ALCS and World Series sample size, because Salty posted a .300/.367/.400 in the ALDS, which ruins their “choked” narrative. True, he was dismal at the plate against Detroit and St. Louis. Like, .136/.208/.136 dismal. While he did drive in the winning run against in Game 2 of the ALCS, his decision to throw to the third base in Game 3 of the World Series was so obviously misguided that fans throughout New England were screaming “No” even as he cocked back his right arm. Of course, these poor performances come on the heels of a fantastic regular season in which he posted an .804 OPS and 118 OPS+ (I will repeat those again and again and, surprise, again!). What these rambling mean is that Salty, like all players not named Mike Trout, has good and bad traits.

The Numbers: .804 OPS! 118 OPS+. I warned you.

Salty is coming off a year in which he set career highs in Games Played, At-Bats, Walks, Hits, Runs Scored, RBI’s, Doubles, OBP, SLP, OPS, OPS+, and Batting Average. In his three seasons as an everyday catcher, EVERY SINGLE one of those numbers increased each season, with the exception of batting average. This indicates a player still improving and coming in to his own at 28. In 2013, Salty’s offensive prowess ranked him in the following spots among MLB catchers with 400+ plate appearances:

• 2nd in Doubles - 40
• 4th in Slugging Percentage - .466
• 5th in On-Base Plus Slugging - .804
• 6th in On-Base Percentage - .338
• 7th in Batting Average – .273
• 7th in Pitches Per Plate Appearance – 4.03
• 8th in Walks - 43
• 9th in Runs Batted In - 65
• 10th in WAR – 2.9 (4th in the American League)

Salty, by most statistical measures, was a top 5 American League catcher, and a top 5-10 catcher in all of baseball. This makes him a borderline All-Star, if not outright deserving of the recognition. In fact, Salvador Perez, the Kansas City Royals backstop who was selected as an AL All-Star reserve, posted a .292/.323./.433 line, with an 88 OPS+. Salty, in case I have yet to beat this into the ground, posted a .273/.338/.466, with an 118 OPS+.

But those solid numbers are what he has produced, so it is natural to project Salty's production going forward. In turns out, a solid offensive career comparison is Jason Varitek, The C (Ugh). Let’s compare their seasons at ages 26, 27, and 28. First, Salty’s’s numbers the past three seasons:

Age 26 (2011): 103 GC, .235/.288/.450, 95 OPS+,  23 Doubles, 16 HR, 56 RBI 24 BB, 1.0 WAR

Age 27 (2012): 121 GC, .228/.288/.454, 97 OPS+. 17 Doubles, 25 HR, 59 RBI, 38 BB, 1.4 WAR

Age 28 (2013): 121 GC, .273/.338/.466, 118 OPS+, 40 Doubles, 14 HR, 65 RBI, 43 BB, 2.9 WAR

Next, are Varitek’s seasons at 26, 27, and 28, followed by his 29, 30, and 31 seasons, which would cover the presumed length of Salty's prospective  deal:

Age 26 (1998): 75 GC,  .253/.309/.407, 83 OPS+, 13 Doubles, 7 HR, 33 RBI, 17 BB, 0.0 WAR

Age 27 (1999): 144 GC, .269/.330/.482, 101 OPS+, 39 Doubles, 20 HR, 76 RBI, 46 BB, 2.0 WAR

Age 28 (2000): 128 GC, .248/.342/.388, 83 OPS+, 31 Doubles, 10 HR, 65 RBI, 60 BB, 1.2 WAR

Age 29 (2001): 50 GC, .293/.371/.489, 124 OPS+, 11 Doubles, 7 HR, 25 RBI, 21 BB, 1.4 WAR

Age 30 (2002): 127 GC, .266/.332/.392, 90 OPS+, 27 Doubles, 10 HR, 61 RBI, 41 BB, 2.1 WAR

Age 31 (2003): 137 GC, .273/.351/.512, 120 OPS+, 31 Doubles, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 51 BB. 3.0 WAR

As you can see, the offensive trajectory is similar, with Salty actually approaching his peak with better numbers in some categories. Varitek’s 2001 season (at age 29) was off to a tremendous start before he suffered a season ending injury in early June. Otherwise, his 29-31 seasons saw him become of the game’s best offensive catchers, with his peak actually coming in 2004,  at age 32 (.296/.390/.482, 121 OPS+, 18 HR).  Neither had, or likely will have, the pinnacle of Brian McCann, but Salty, like Varitek approaching his prime, racked up extra base hits and got on base at impressive rates.

The Intangibles: Media and fans love to harp on “Does this guy have what it takes to play in Boston?” I think it’s bullshit to neatly and quickly explain why a player is not playing well without having to do actual, you know, reporting and research (see: Renteria, Edgar). My feelings aside, Salty showed he can play every day in Boston, be it on a 69-win mess or a World Series champion. He hit 25 home runs amid 2012’s Valentine circus and the followed it with a career year in 2013. He caught three out of every four games during the regular season. And after being sent to the bench for the final three games of the World Series, television cameras consistently showed him being the first out of the dugout to greet pitchers and David Ross, his replacement. From the outside, which is the closest I will ever get , Salty appears to be a tough, steady, and encouraging teammate.

The Alternative: Brian McCann is the most-oft mentioned replacement for Salty. Brian McCann is great, and has been great for nearly a decade. Baseball Prospectus lists him as this offseason’s fourth best free agent. He has produced a career line of .277/.350/.473, a 117 OPS+, won five Silver Slugger Awards, been named to seven All-Star games, and hit 20+ home runs seven times in nine seasons. His greatness is not doubt. What is in doubt, however, is how long his greatness will last. Only one year older than Salty, he has caught nearly 1,100 games, more than twice as many as Salty. The signs of regression are starting to show. After catching an obscene 143 games in 2010, he has games caught have decreased to 128, 121, and 102 over the past three seasons. Since posting a tremendous .896 OPS in 2008, he has past five seasons have gone: .834, .828, .817, .698, .796.

In fact, McCann’s offensive production, while still strong, has decreased across the board since his ridiculous 2008 performance.

2008: .301/.373/.523/, 135 OPS+, 153 Hits, 42 Doubles

2009: .281/.349/.486, 119 OPS+, 137 Hits, 35 Doubles

2010: .269/.375/.453, 124 OPS+, 129 Hits, 25 Doubles

2011: .270/.351/.466, 122 OPS+, 126 Hits, 19 Doubles

2012: .230/.300/.399, 87 OPS+, 101 Hits, 14 Doubles

2013: .256/.336/.461, 115 OPS+, 91 Hits, 13 Doubles

The downward trends suggest an offensive player who is appearing in fewer games, getting on-base with decreased frequency, and hitting for less power. And again, even if he moves to DH in years four and five of his contract, those 1,400-1,500 games caught do not come off his legs.And while I loathe using the postseason as the primary measuring stick, McCann has gone for 0-13 with .058 OPS in his past two postseasons. McCann’s best seasons, and best legs, appear behind him.

McCann just seems like  a dick. 

It should be obvious that the two in-house alternatives - David Ross and Ryan Lavarnway - are not worth discussing as the primary catching option.

To be fair to McCann, there is precedent for catcher’s hitting well in their 34 year old season, which would be the final season of a presumed five year contract. In 2006, Jorge Posada caught 134 games and posted a .277/.374/.492, with a 122 OPS+, 23 HR’s, 93 RBI’s, and 4.0 WAR. But he also caught his 1,100 game that year, a number McCann will hit early in his 30 year old season. A more apt comparison for age 34 might be Ivan Rodriguez. In 2006, he caught 123 games, hit 13 HR’s, and posted a .769 OPS, while catching his 1,900 game. Pretty good, but is it worth $16 million a year? And if those are the numbers for a DH, which several people claim is McCann’s position by the end of a five year deal, those numbers are abysmal.

Carlos Ruiz, the consensus third best free agent catcher, appears poised to re-up with the Phillies for three years/$25 million.

Verdict:   Do you want the Red Sox to invest five-to-six seasons, 100+ million for a 30 year old catcher, with declining offensive performance, and 1,100 games on his legs? I do not. To me, three seasons for a 28 year old catcher with improving offensive performance and 515 games on his legs is considerably more appealing. The Sox should offer Salty three years/$30 million. In the ideal situation, Ross would return as the backup and start 40-45 games. Then, in 2015, Christian Vasquez, touted as a can’t-miss prospect, assumes the backup duties, before ultimately becoming the starter in 2016 or 2017. It is a transition that does not: 1.) require a huge investment of years, or 2.) rushing a prospect before he is ready. That is a win-win for the Sox.

Again, do not remember Salty primarily for a subpar ALCS and World Series. Over a full regular season, which, you know, is how a team qualifies for the postseason, he is an average defensive catcher & game caller, and a plus offensive catcher. Admittedly, when pitcher’s get to two strikes on Salty, I have zero confidence there will be a result other than a strikeout. In addition, and perhaps most damningly, Salty had a .376 BABIP in 2013, fourth highest in baseball and probably not sustainable. That’s the bad. But the good - .800 OPS, 45-55 extra base hits, lengthy at-bats, steadily increasing production from a player approaching his peak, and durability throughout the looonnnggg regular season – is very good. The Sox should expect Varitek-approaching-his-prime like offensive production, for short years and reasonable money. Sign him. Besides, we're not ready to say goodbye to these kind of joyful strokes: