Thursday, January 23, 2014

Signing Grady Sizemore: Low Risk, Potential High Rewards, and Dong Shots

A quick take on the Sox signing Grady "How Many Days Into Spring Training Before Shaughnessy Makes An Awful Grady Little Joke" Sizemore...



Grady Sizemore? More like Grady Size- um, yeah, I got nothing. At least nothing Deadspin didn't cover in 2009: Adult Male Selfie Alert

As you know by now, the Sox signed Sizemore to a one-year deal for $750,000. With incentives, the deal could reach $6 million. Not bad for a guy who was out of baseball in 2012 and 2013. However, if you go back 4-5 years, it's about $15-20 million less than you would have expected Sizemore to be making in his age 31 season. Just how good was he?

From 2005-2008, Sizemore was one of the best players in baseball, a crazy combination of speed, power, patience, and durability. In each of those four seasons he posted at least a 123 OPS+ each season, with two seasons of a 133 OPS+. During that same time span, he played in 157, 162, 162, and 158 games, respectively. His average season during those four years:

116 Runs Scored, 180 Hits, 41 Doubles, 8 Triples, 27 Home Runs, 81 RBI, 29 Stolen Bases, 85 walks

He won a Silver Slugger, earned two Gold Gloves, and played in three All-Star games. Like I wrote: Power. Speed. Patience. Durability. Dong shots.

So, what happened? Injuries, man. Fucking injuries. Both a groin and left arm injury in 2009. A knee injury in 2010. Another knee injury in 2011. Yet another knee injury in 2012. Surgeries and rehab galore. Sizemore played in only 106 games in 2009, hitting 18 HR with a 110 OPS+. Still an above average player, but certainly a fall off from his peak. His games played dropped to 33 in 2010 and 71 in 2011. And finally, zero games in 2012 and 2013.

Sizemore's recent history suggests this will not be 2005-2008, but it could be 2009. Would that be so bad? Obviously, nobody knows how the season will play out, but just for today it's exciting. A big name that was on a HOF path four years ago? For mid-January, I'll take it.

I like the deal, especially for the money. Worst case scenario, Sizemore has nothing left and the Sox outfield consists of Bradley, Victorino, Nava, and Gomes. Best case scenario, they bought low on a guy with superior talent who is still young. I think they are fine, no matter the scenario that plays out. With Ellsbury and (likely) Drew gone, AJ Pierzysnski being an aging dick, and Troy O' Leary well into retirement, the team could use a left-handed bat with some pop. Good deal. Welcome to Boston, Grady. Just keep the iPhone away from mirrors.

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